October 27, 2011 – 8:00 pm
From our special correspondent in Brussels
Not everything has dragged on last night in Brussels. From 20 hours, the heads of state of the 27 EU countries have approved the launch of a large recapitalization of European banks, encrypted by the industry policeman to 106 billion euros. The principle was in fact acknowledged the last Saturday by finance ministers.
106 billion euros. This figure results from the examination of bank balance sheets after taking into account the loss of value to the end of September of sovereign debt Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or Italian, but also gains recorded on their German or British counterparts. On this basis, regulators assessed for each bank the way to go to 9% of regulatory capital ratio ("core tier 1" prudential banking jargon).This objective will be achieved on June 30 at the latest. And the addition is particularly heavy for Greek banks, of course (30 billion euros), but also in Spain (26 billion) and Italy (14.8 billion). In France, the bill is estimated at 8.8 billion, Germany at 5.1 billion.
A new showdown promises
This total was largely anticipated by the market and the banks themselves. However, a new showdown between the industry and promises to the authorities. "We ask banks to recapitalize. Not to cut their balance sheets, "argued a senior Wednesday ahead of the summit. Number of facilities provided to achieve because much of the effort flopped the sails, that is to say, by limiting their activities consume the most capital.But Europe is concerned about the impact of these strategies on the distribution of credit, especially in the east where the industry is largely owned by groups of Western Europe. The Council of the Union has insisted on its vigilance on this point. And regulators have developed their doctrine accordingly. End of June 2012, they calculate the ratio of each bank according to its balance sheet at September 30, 2011 …. It is therefore too late to play on the variable of total assets. Only an increase in capital will reach the famous 9%.
Putting aside the benefits
To avoid making capital increases in market conditions given the state of detestable share price values the industry or, worse, to use the state to bail out the banks who can n ' have only one option: to put their profits in reserve, probably in much higher proportions for use.This means that the shareholders of the banks concerned will receive little or no dividend next year. Politicians hide it just, that sacrifice is almost as an objective.
All has not been lost to the banks. The Council of the EU, the European Banking Authority, promised to lay the foundation for coordinated action to help them take on the market. The sovereign debt crisis cut investors' appetite for foreign bank debts. However, they will raise more than € 600 billion next year. The European Central Bank has opened the floodgates of funding up to a year. But it can do much more as the industry needs stable funding, so many years.Government guarantees could be implemented.
Recapitalization of Societe Generale, and BNP to BPCE
BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and BPCE (People's Bank, Savings Bank) have additional capital needs between 2.1 and 3.4 billion euros while the Crédit Agricole Group is considered to be sufficiently capitalized, reveal tests made by the European Banking Authority (EBA) with the supervisory authority (CPA) on Thursday posted an indicative estimate.
According to stress tests published by the regulator which depends on the Banque de France, the capital needs of BNP Paribas is estimated at 2.1 billion euros, those of BPCE to 3.4 billion euros and those Societe Generale is estimated at 3.3 billion euros.
"This is an indicative figure and temporary, which will be modified to take into account the figures to 30 September 2011 – level of capital, exposures of banks, market values - and we expect to publish the final figures in During the month of November, "said the CPA. "It is this last figure as a reference for the possible need for increased capital by June 2012."
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